Accountants enter 2026 downbeat on global economic prospects
The ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) of almost 1,200 finance professionals finished 2025 stuck in a rut of gloom. Results from the long running survey of accountants and other finance professionals show weak global confidence barely unchanged over the course of the year. Although confidence –however shaky – is meaningfully higher than the trough of Q1 2025.
The Global New Orders Index suffered a third consecutive quarterly decline, raising the risk of some moderation in global growth, although it remains significantly above its pandemic-era low. Confidence among Chief financial officers (CFOs) improved somewhat, but remained below its historic average, and the key indicators point to caution at their firms.
In Asia Pacific confidence rose again in Q4 and is at its highest since Q2 2024. The forward-looking New Orders Index declined slightly but remains above its historical average. The Capital Expenditure Index rose for the third successive quarter and is at its highest since Q3 2024, while there was a small gain in the Employment Index, but it remains below its average.
The proportion of respondents reporting increased operating costs eased slightly again and is just below the series average, suggesting some scope for central banks in the region to ease policy further. Overall, when set against a backdrop of significantly higher US import tariffs, the latest results are quite encouraging. This may have various causes, including the resilience in the global economy, a reduction in trade policy uncertainty, and robust AI-related exports. Further trade restrictions are a downside risk for the region in 2026, as would be sharper than expected slowdowns in either the US or Chinese economies, or in global AI-related investment spending.
Jonathan Ashworth, Chief Economist, ACCA, said: ‘Accountants remain cautious entering 2026, amid a highly uncertain global backdrop. The global economy performed better than expected in 2025 and looks set to remain resilient in 2026 amid recent monetary easing by central banks, stock market gains, supportive fiscal policies in key countries, and the ongoing global AI boom.
‘But there remains significant uncertainty, amid a wide array of risks, not least on the geopolitical front, which are more heavily skewed to the downside.’
While confidence rose in Asia Pacific there was a decline in North America. Alain Mulder, Senior Director, Europe Operations & Global Special Projects at IMA said: ‘ Accountants in North America appear very downbeat at present, albeit somewhat less so than in the first half of 2025. Higher import tariffs, policy uncertainty and high interest rates likely remain important drags on sentiment.’
‘The Employment and Capital Expenditure indices speak to significant caution among businesses in advanced economies. In North America, the Employment Index was at a record low in Q4, even beneath the trough seen during the pandemic, while the Capital Expenditure Index was at its second lowest on record, although it was not that much lower than other readings in recent years.’
Accountants flagged economic pressure, cyber disruption and geopolitical uncertainty as the top risk priorities, underscoring that risks are increasingly complex and interlinked. Despite this, Q4 2025 respondents’ preparedness for non-financial shocks, such as cyber threats, misconduct and fraud, appeared moderate at best, signalling a gap between risk awareness and organisational readiness in an era of heightened uncertainty.
Ashworth added: ‘Key GECS indicators continue to point to the risk of some moderation in global growth, although they are not indicative of a major slowdown. Nevertheless, with confidence low, and corporate caution evident, were another major global shock to occur over coming quarters it could send businesses more firmly into retrenchment mode, raising the risk of a more pronounced slowing in global growth.’
Read the report.